The market is waiting for something. Here's what to watch this week!
Last week we were hit by a classic “chain reaction” of sell-offs – from Tuesday through Thursday.
Since then, the market has looked calmer and volatility has started to cool down.
The question is no longer what happened, but where we go from here.
Here’s what is worth keeping an eye on this week.
Macroeconomics
The calendar is packed, and almost every day brings a potential market-moving factor:
Monday
- Retail sales data for December
Shows how consumers behaved during the holiday period.
Wednesday
- January labor market report
The answer to whether employment is cooling or remains strong.
Thursday
- New jobless claims
- Existing home sales for January
Friday
- CPI inflation for January
This is the day markets are waiting for.
Why CPI is key
Right now, there is a significant divergence between:
- the Fed’s official CPI (2.7% for December)
- the Truflation index (around 0.68%)
One of the two will have to give.
If Friday’s data comes closer to the lower readings, this increases the probability of future rate cuts.
Historically, such an environment has been far more favorable for risk assets, including crypto.
Regulation and market structure
The CLARITY Act back on the agenda
Beyond macro, there is also a political factor this week that should not be underestimated.
On February 10, a White House–level meeting is expected, focused on one of the main bottlenecks around the CLARITY Act – the issue of yield on stablecoins.
This is one of the most controversial elements of the bill and a key reason it has stalled for months.
The process also actively involves the SEC Chair, Paul Atkins, who has been pushing for the U.S. not to fall behind other jurisdictions in establishing clear rules for the crypto market.
What the CLARITY Act still needs to pass
The path is not short, even after this meeting:
- The bill enters the Senate legislative calendar
- The Majority Leader decides when it reaches the floor
- Debates, procedural blocks, and a possible cloture vote (60 votes) may follow
- Final passage requires a simple majority
It’s important to remember that the House of Representatives already passed H.R. 3633 in July, a broader version covering both the SEC and the CFTC.
This means that even if the Senate succeeds, the most likely scenario is a conference committee to reconcile differences and produce a final text for an up-or-down vote.
The big picture
If the CLARITY Act makes real progress, it would be a major step toward:
- a clearer regulatory framework
- greater institutional interest
- less systemic uncertainty for the entire sector
If not, the market remains stuck in the familiar mode of waiting and fragmented rules.
Sometimes markets don’t move because of charts, but because of processes happening behind the scenes.
This week is exactly that type.
